I've lost confidence in the ability of our weather forecasters to predict anything ahead of time (they are OK at telling you what happened after the fact - just ask anyone who used to live in New Orleans, if you can find them). Here's a verbatim statement from our taxpayer-funded meteorologists at weather.gov:
AT THIS TIME...WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH...ALTHOUGH OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS WEATHER SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH. UP THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE MAIN COMPUTER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO OFFER DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS IN THE MANY DETAILS THAT WILL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT HAPPENS...AS WELL AS THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATION.
Wow. Hey - I think any old geezer like me with arthritis could do better. It seems that as technology has advanced, the accuracy of weather forecasts has decreased. Apologies to anyone reading this (both of you) with friends who are in the weather business, but I have this image of a guy in Birmingham eating a greasy burger with french fries, watching re-runs of "Whose Line Is It Anyway," and flipping a coin while the completely divergent weather models run on the monitor behind him. Pat Dye (former Auburn football coach) has been quoted as saying "the trick to beating the other team is to score more points." I'm not sure how that fits in here, but I couldn't resist throwing it in. Anyway, the keen folks at weather.gov should re-program those fancy computers. All they have to do is look out the window and watch the birds. Here's a revised computer model:
Are birds dry?
Yes - IT'S NOT RAINING
No -
Are they white?
Yes - IT'S SNOWING
Are they covering their heads with their wings?
Yes - IT"S HAILING
Are they frantically digging for worms and acting weird?
Yes - HURRICANE COMING
Are they spinning around rapidly in circles?
Yes - TORNADO
Well, it's only a thought. I'm just upset because I spread fertilizer yesterday, trusting the forecast for two days of rain that hasn't happened yet. Now I have visions of my yard turning into a small dustbowl. But then I guess I can write my long-awaited novel, "Kudzu Flowers of Wrath."
2 Comments:
Logic chart here
5:10 PM
Hi, Mr. Thad! I thought I'd let you know that i'm on blogspot, now! :)
6:15 AM
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